Rahma Shanthur

Yemen-In recent weeks, southern Yemen has witnessed a sharp military and political escalation that has redrawn the regional landscape following a period of relative calm within the ongoing conflict that began in 2014.

The escalation came amid extensive movements by forces of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which expanded into Hadramout and other eastern southern provinces—steps that triggered direct tensions with the internationally recognized Yemeni government and Saudi-backed forces.

The events began in early December 2025, when the STC launched a large-scale military offensive in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, seizing strategic areas that granted it new influence in the southeastern region. The operation relied on organized forces, armored vehicles, and heavy weaponry. STC leadership justified the move by claiming the presence of government-affiliated forces it labeled as “terrorist.”

In a dramatic development, Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council Rashad Al-Alimi issued a decision ordering the withdrawal of all Emirati forces from Yemeni territory within 24 hours, in direct response to the southern escalation and what he described as interference supporting armed factions. The decision also included the cancellation of the joint defense agreement signed between Yemen and the UAE, a move widely seen as a significant shift in the government’s sovereign stance toward its regional partners.

In response, Abu Dhabi announced the withdrawal of Emirati forces from certain locations just hours after the Yemeni request, stating that their military mission in the country had concluded.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia called on all southern parties to engage in dialogue during talks held in Riyadh, aiming to reach a comprehensive political solution to the southern issue within the framework of Yemen’s unity.

A delegation from the STC traveled to Riyadh to attend the talks. STC President Aidarous Al-Zubaidi was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia within a deadline set by the coalition leadership to discuss the reasons behind the escalation and reach a settlement; however, he failed to appear and reportedly fled Aden that evening.

In the same context, several ministers suspected of supporting armed movements or distributing weapons were dismissed and referred to the judiciary for investigation.

The Southern Transitional Council also announced its formal dissolution inside and outside Yemen and the cancellation of all its bodies and offices, a move described by STC officials as an effort to preserve peace and security and to implement Saudi Arabia’s initiative for comprehensive southern dialogue.

 

Analytical Perspective

Malak Adel, a graduate in history and political science, argues that “what southern Yemen is experiencing cannot be interpreted as spontaneous local events or a pure expression of popular will, as is often promoted. Rather, it is part of complex external arrangements in which local actors are used as tools of pressure and repositioning.”

She explains that “the STC’s takeover of Hadramout was far from incidental,” describing both the STC and the Presidential Council as little more than “chess pieces” moved by regional powers. “The STC’s entry into Hadramout was driven by Emirati interests, while the move was met with clear and firm Saudi rejection, which escalated the situation,” she added.

Regarding the southern cause, Adel notes that “the issue is legitimate in its origins, with southern grievances dating back to the aftermath of the 1994 war and ranking among the key demands raised in 2011. However, the timing of the current escalation suggests that the issue is being used as a political pressure tool and a means of reshuffling cards, rather than as a genuine path toward a comprehensive solution.”

On military developments, she pointed out that the military parade in Aden initially did not raise widespread concern, despite signaling the presence of organized forces equipped with armor and weapons. Real alarm, she said, began with the sudden takeover of Hadramout “overnight,” under the pretext of confronting government-affiliated forces labeled as terrorist.

She emphasized that the move did not go unnoticed, but was followed by political and security escalation, countered by Saudi efforts to reorganize government ranks and restore unity, ultimately moving toward sidelining the STC.

Adel also warned that Al-Zubaidi’s flight from Yemen opens the door to uncertain transformations, cautioning that Yemen can no longer withstand further crises amid what she described as a “terrifying” economic situation, despite attempts by the Central Bank to stabilize the currency and pay salaries—efforts often undermined by security breakdowns and political fragmentation.

Drawing parallels with events in 2014, she stressed that the current confrontation differs fundamentally, noting the presence of an armed southern actor raising similar slogans. However, she argued that the current social and political environment does not support a stable secession, but instead risks opening the door to regional and international conflicts, particularly in a strategically sensitive area.

In conclusion, Malak Adel expressed hope that “the Presidential Leadership Council will adopt an independent national stance and refrain from yielding to external dictates,” stressing that the true objective of the war should remain the restoration of the capital, Sanaa, rather than engaging in side battles or determining the fate of the southern issue at this juncture. “Yemeni society’s priorities have changed,” she said. “People are now seeking any party that supports peace, stability, and basic living rights. Whoever genuinely stands for Yemen’s unity and stability will earn public support without hesitation.”