Does geography allow the Kurdistan Region to remain neutral in the ongoing conflict?
Despite declaring neutrality, the Kurdistan Region is a central arena in the Iran-US-Israel conflict, facing Iranian attacks due to its role in US military calculations.
Lava Kurd
News Center_Due to the ongoing war between Iran and the United States and Israel, which broke out after a 12-day war in June 2025 and has resumed since February 28, 2026, until today, the Middle East is witnessing profound transformations. The region is going through an extremely sensitive and tense phase, with direct and deep impacts on neighboring countries, particularly Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.
The Kurdistan Region, as a result of the increasing US military presence and interests within it, has become a "first line of defense by proxy," subjected to direct attacks from Iran, as well as from Iranian-aligned Iraqi factions operating from within Iraqi territory.
Iranian support for non-governmental armed factions in Iraq is a major source of concern in the region. It is likely that many of these non-state actors may acquire more advanced military technologies, including medium-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) in Iraq operate across borders and possess the capability to threaten or launch attacks, whether in preparation for a regional military confrontation or in support of their allies.
Difficult Position for the Region
From an Iraqi perspective, both the Baghdad and Erbil governments find themselves in a sensitive position amidst this tension between global and regional powers. The United States is fully aware that Iran shares long borders with Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, in addition to a high level of economic interdependence, particularly concerning food and agricultural products. Most Iranian exports to Iraq and the Region are not subject to significant restrictions, and trade movement between the two sides continues.
Targets Struck by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Affiliated Militias:
US Sites:
The US Consulate in Erbil and Harir Air Base have been repeatedly attacked by drones and missiles.
Iranian Kurdish Parties: Headquarters and camps of Iranian Kurdish parties in Eastern Kurdistan (Iran) within the Iraqi Kurdistan Region have been subjected to heavy bombardment.
Vital Infrastructure: Attacks have targeted residential areas and oil fields, such as the HKN oil field in Duhok, in addition to diplomatic sites, including the UAE Consulate.
US and Israeli Strategy
Approximately one-fifth of the airstrikes carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran in Eastern Kurdistan focus on destroying Iranian military infrastructure. There have also been widespread statements and reports about a plan, allegedly supported by Washington, aimed at unifying Kurdish parties to launch a ground offensive inside Eastern Kurdistan.
According to reports, former US President Donald Trump initially asked Kurdish leaders to "choose a side," but later changed his stance, calling on Kurdish forces to avoid direct engagement in fighting to prevent them from suffering significant losses.
Position of the Region's Leadership and Unending Pressure
Nechirvan Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region, and Masrour Barzani, Prime Minister of the Region's government, have stated on multiple occasions that the Region is not a party to the ongoing conflicts and should not be used as a platform to launch attacks against neighboring countries. Kurdish leaders have also expressed deep concern over the lack of an independent air defense system in the region, which has made the Kurdistan Region vulnerable to repeated daily attacks.
The geographical location of the Kurdistan Region, in addition to its lack of full sovereignty over its airspace, borders, and security decisions, has created a complex situation that forces the Region to choose between difficult options: either align with one side or attempt to protect itself from being drawn into becoming part of the ongoing conflict.
Attack Statistics
According to published data, since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, up until March 21, the Kurdistan Region has been subjected to over 410 drone and missile attacks. The majority of these attacks were directed at Erbil and its surroundings, which accounted for 320 drones and missiles. This was followed by Sulaymaniyah with 85 attacks, then Duhok with 6 attacks, and finally Halabja, which was targeted by two drones.
From February 28 to March 21, these attacks resulted in the deaths of 8 people, in addition to 55 injured.
On March 24, a missile attack occurred near the Soran district, where the area was targeted twice with six missiles, leading to the death of six people and injuring more than 20 others.